Weak recruitment data but cause for hope too

July 2024

Subdued market data for the recruitment industry this quarter - but there’s a case for optimism too...

First, both Hays and Page Group reported both permanent and temporary placements were weak, with employers reluctant to make hires and candidates cautious about moving, in both the public and private sector.

The picture is so bad, Page Group said, that its profits would halve this year compared to last. Hays said uncertainty and concerns driven by elections, interest rates and inflation all had an impact.
Both agreed the outlook is still far from rosy.

Jobs data is backwards-looking however.
There was encouraging news as the UK economy in May grew twice as much as expected at 0.4%. And it reached 0.9% over the three months to May, its strongest 3-month performance for several years.
With inflation back at 2%, a Euros football boost for pubs, and supermarkets, and the chances of an interest rate cut in September, the outlook for the economy - and by extension the recruitment industry is more positive than Hays and Page Group’s numbers project.

One side-note, none of this is down to the new government - it’s all driven by events and some policy decisions made by Rishi Sunak and the Bank of England. However Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer will happily reap the benefits and hope that employers turn on the hiring taps by the end of the year.

One question remains though in the mind of employers is what we’ll see from Labour’s new employment policies and an Autumn budget that could still yet dampen recruitment.